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In hindsight , he didn't know why he thought the rocky beach provided a more yielding place to land than concrete. Hindsight shows, to even we amateurs, that drains have to be improved when you build more houses higher up the hill. In hindsight the tripod was unnecessary as I used a beanbag most of the time. With the rosy hue of hindsight , once the contract was signed the actual project was quite straightforward.
With the benefit of hindsight , we can indeed debate whether the levels agreed were too strict or too lax. With hindsight , the Government's initial optimism and its failure to impose an instant ban on animal movement were completely misconceived. The only grossly negligent act came under the orders of Sir Ian Blair whom Im sure wouldnt disagree now in hindsight.
Perhaps the main revelation was how, with the benefit of hindsight , the whole Doherty saga seems so damn tedious. Now, in the wisdom of hindsight it 's easy to look back and point a finger of blame, but at whom? With hindsight , of course, the idea for an alternative, mobile phone-activated taxi company seems brilliant. It was only in hindsight that we realized we should have limited the scope of our product and market to restaurant discounts.
Hindsight bias is and it reveals that the iPhone sold very well, despite being only available from a single American carrier. The answer to this question is, only in hindsight will you be able to decide if it was too soon. However, judging the accuracy of such forecasts on Astronet is something that can only be done in hindsight! It is easy to look at something someone has said in hindsight and make it match current events. With hindsight , we can safely say that music survived the invention of the C The word usage examples above have been gathered from various sources to reflect current and historial usage.
The benefit of hindsight: what we got wrong – and why
They do not represent the opinions of YourDictionary. Home Sentences hindsight. But you know, the decision involves hindsight. In hindsight , things could have gone better. They had the hindsight of 60 years of automotive development.
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Personal Finance News. General Insurance Corporation of India. Precious Metal. Market Watch. Pinterest Reddit. Investors should learn from the unpredictability of financial markets, instead of trying to predict what will happen based on past events. By Uma Shashikant To believe that we knew what was coming is a smug and satisfying feeling. Once something has happened, it is easy to explain why it was so predictable by simply collecting information from the past and fitting it into the present events.
Psychologists call this the hindsight bias. After every election, even if the results are completely different from what the opinion and exit polls and the pundits predicted, a lot of time is spent on the analysis of how the result was so obviously out there, waiting to happen, and how many markers in the past pointed to the very result. This classic game of hindsight bias plays out every time there is an unexpected turn of events.
In the complex environment of uncertainty, hindsight bias gives us the comfort and presents the possibility that we are still in control of things. We pride ourselves for knowing that something was bound to happen. Hindsight bias can lull us into believing that we can predict the course of future events. That is the danger of selectively picking data from the past to interpret an outcome.
Books about the most successful companies, or the best performing CEOs, or the patterns inherent in equity market crashes feed on hindsight bias. It is now known that many firms that were crowned as pillars of excellence, or moved from being good to becoming great, have shut down in failure and bankruptcy. The painstaking research into these success stories simply picked up from the past, information that confirmed and collaborated the present successes of the business , and was therefore a project in hindsight bias.
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There is nothing precious to learn from these selective instances, especially if one must make decisions for the future. Investors fall into the trap of hindsight bias very easily. When the buzz about the new issue is high, it is easy for people to point out how they knew it all. Congratulatory stories on listings are always about those sterling qualities that everyone seems to have identified and known all along—that this business would make it big. However, such analysis is not helpful to the investor who must make a choice about the next IPO that is being sold in the market.
They instead help a lot of poor quality IPOs to ride this bias and sell their equity to gullible investors. There have been enough businesses that have failed despite having a star CEO at the top. The factors that lead to the success of a business are so complex, that it is not possible to arrive at a formula that mixes up a few things—good manager, great product, expanding markets and such—and arrive at a surefire winner.
Equity investing is about making a choice based on a current set of ideas, and monitoring closely how that story unveils over time.
To be able to observe and act in an unbiased manner, it is important to knock off the simplistic ideas about how it is easy to see it all coming together. It is not. The biggest limitation that hindsight bias brings about is the false sense of control and the easy interpretation of the outcome For every confirmatory story about what worked, the opposite can be shown to be true.
Every industry holds leaders and laggards, and every business has its ups and downs. The essential unpredictability of the future plays out as stock prices are available every day as an output of the actions of many people, who decide to buy or sell based on their need and view. This availability of this continuous stream of prices also triggers an analysis of patterns and formations.
Technical analysis has devoted followers who see trends that are representative of how people behaved. That is the limited, but useful, role of technical analysis.
It is a nice story of how demand and supply operated in the market place, and how much buyers were willing to pay, or how low prices fell before most gave up selling. But to imagine that this analysis would enable predicting how the future prices will play out, is a classic case of hindsight bias, and is doomed to mostly fail.
The essential unpredictability of stock prices is not altered by the tools of technical analysis.